Brexit: a brief inquiry
On January 31, 2020, the United Kingdom finally left the European Union, after 47 years of being a part of it. Even though this event was no news, it is remaining the most discussed one these days. Let’s go through the timeline and facts of how the events that influenced international relations and people’s lives have been developing.
Britain’s membership in the EU encompassed various spheres such as political, economic and social. The UK joined the European Community that became the foundation of the EU on January 1, 1973. The EU was founded in 1993 and aimed at regional integration. During its existence, several stages of integration were achieved: from the preferential trading area to an economic and political union.
It has to be noted that the UK has never been incorporated in the European integration to the extent that the founding members have. Britain has kept out of the tangible Community acquis: Schengen Area, single currency, common agricultural policy. UK politics has been a battlefield of Eurosceptics and followers of further integration with the EU since the very emergence of the European Venture. The 2016 Membership referendum was not the first national debate whether to stay in the EU. 1975 marked another vote which showed a rather united opinion that the UK belonged to the European Community with 67% voting in favor of staying.
The 2016 Referendum resulted in 17.4 million Britons voting Leave and 16.1 million voting Remain (equivalent to 51.9% and 48.1%)¹. NatCen Social Research (Britain’s leading independent social research institute) analyzed the data received from the highest quality sources available on the EU Referendum. The main findings of the report “Understanding the Leave vote”¹ included the following:
- Identity politics played a role – feelings of national identity and sense of change over time, were equally, if not more strongly, associated with the Leave vote than the objective demographics;
- Voters not persuaded by arguments about economic risks – there was a greater sense of certainty about what impact leaving the EU would have on immigration and independence, while people were less persuaded by the Remain campaign’s focus on the economic risks;
- ‘New voters’ leaned towards Leave – the Referendum attracted a group of ‘new voters’ who did not participate in the 2015 General Election, a majority (60%) of which voted Leave;
- The vote split across traditional party lines – conventional left-right politics do not help explain the Referendum vote. The public splits across party lines and people’s broader social values were more helpful at explaining the result;
- Turnout favored Leave – those who said they leaned towards Remain in the runup to the Referendum were more likely to not vote (19% vs. 11% of Leave supporters). If turnout among supporters of both sides had been equal the vote would have been closer still;
- Leave brought together a broad coalition of voters comprising three groups – affluent Eurosceptics, the older working class and a smaller group of economically disadvantaged, antiImmigration voters.
Looking at the demographics of the vote, according to polling by Lord Ashcroft, younger voters were much more likely to vote Remain than older voters². Ironically, now, more than three years after the Brexit referendum, some 74% of people who were too young to cast a ballot in 2016 but have since reached voting age would vote Remain if a second public vote was called. The survey carried out by BMG in 2019 on behalf of the anti-Brexit youth groups Our Future, Our Choice and For Our Future’s Sake, suggests the youth vote would significantly boost the chances of overturning the 2016 leave result. Such surveys as this are very important, as a group that isn’t taken into consideration enough in the Brexit debate – those too young to vote – was polled and given voice to³.
After the referendum, a debate on what the UK–EU relationship status would be like started. There was nothing clear about this process, except for the formal notice in 2017 to quit, under Article 50 of the European Union’s Lisbon Treaty. The legal process was supposed to last 2 years, with a final withdrawal date on March 29, 2019. However, due to uncertainties concerning the after-EU deal for Britain, the date was postponed several times, with the ultimate exit only on January 31, 20204.
The current situation is just the beginning of an even more challenging negotiation process concerning the trade relations between the UK and the European Community – its most important trade partner and the biggest source of investment. On the other hand, the governing conservative party’s slogan “Get Brexit done – Unleash Britain’s potential” seems unrealistically optimistic with Boris Johnson’s eagerness to finish the negotiations by the end of 2020.
The scenarios concerning the future awaiting Britain after Brexit are diverse and controversial. The no-deal agreement remains the most feared one, depriving Britain of tariff-free trade and other benefits of belonging to a Single Market. Only time will shed light on the true cost of leaving the EU and choosing whatever path to the common life with the European Community.
However, some lessons can be learned from the outcomes of the Brexit referendum and what followed not only for Britain but for those countries where Euroscepticism is also on the rise. The role of young people showing up and speaking their voices at elections/referendums is crucial. Educating oneself as a citizen on the political affairs one’s country is involved in should be a key to making a rational decision. The fact that the 2nd most googled question in the UK on the day after the referendum was “What is the EU?”5 might not only show ignorance of the citizens but also the short sight of the European civic education campaign in these critical times.
European Solidarity Corps Volunteers – Project “Volunteers United in Diversity”
Institute of Research & Training on European Affairs
References:
1http://natcen.ac.uk/media/1319222/natcen_brexplanations-report-final-web2.pdf
2https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36616028
4https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/world/europe/what-is-brexit.html
